What “life expectancy” really measures
Life expectancy is one of the most quoted numbers in the world and one of the most misunderstood. The figure you usually hear, life expectancy at birth, is the average number of years a newborn would live if today’s death rates stayed the same. It is pulled down by deaths in infancy and early adulthood, so it says little about someone who is already 40 or 70. For them, the useful figure is remaining life expectancy: the average number of further years for people who have reached that age.
That is what this page shows. The bar compares the years you have lived with the further years an average person your age has ahead in the place you choose. The curve underneath shows how the expected age keeps rising as people get older, which is why a 65-year-old today can expect, on average, to reach well past the life expectancy at birth.
How we calculate it
We use the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 period life tables for 2023, both sexes combined, which give remaining life expectancy at ages 0, 10, 15, 25, 45, 65 and 80. Between those ages we draw a straight line. Beyond 80 we continue the curve with the steady decline that life tables show at very old ages. The expected age is your current age plus the remaining years.
| Age | United States | United Kingdom | Australia | World |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At birth | 79.3 | 81.3 | 83.9 | 73.2 |
| 25 (years ahead) | 55.3 | 56.9 | 59.3 | 52.2 |
| 45 | 36.7 | 37.7 | 39.4 | 33.9 |
| 65 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 21.7 | 17.6 |
| 80 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.3 |
Worked example. In the United States, a person aged 36.5 has on average about 44.6 more years ahead under 2023 death rates, which means an expected age of about 81.1. That is almost two years above the 79.3 expected at birth, because the risks of childhood and young adulthood are already behind them.
Using it wisely
Averages like these are useful for planning, for example when thinking about retirement savings, where running out of money too early is a bigger risk than leaving some unspent. Many planners suggest planning for a longer life than the average, since half of people live beyond it.
Questions people ask
Is this a prediction of how long I will live?
No. It is an average for everyone your age in the place you choose, worked out from today’s death rates. Your own health, habits, family history and future medical advances all matter far more for any one person, so treat it as a picture of your peers, not a forecast.
Why does my expected age go up as I get older?
Because the average at birth includes everyone who dies young. Each year you live, you have already passed those risks, so the average age reached by people like you rises. Statisticians call this conditional life expectancy.
What is period life expectancy?
It assumes that the death rates of one year, here 2023, stay the same for the rest of a person’s life. Since death rates have usually fallen over time, real lifetimes have tended to be a little longer than period figures suggest.
Do women live longer?
On average, yes. In the United States in 2023, life expectancy at birth was 81.8 for women and 76.9 for men. The gap is similar in most countries, and it narrows at older ages.
Sources. United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024 (period life tables, both sexes, 2023), via Our World in Data. Calculations run in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere.